We provide agents with powerful statistical analysis and research for arbitration, free agency and long-term deal negotiations. Call Steve Fall at 512-852-8193 for more information.

Relievers and Consistency

Are relief pitchers more volatile than starters? What some perceive as lack of consistency has more to do with the limited number of innings relievers pitch.

Based on his core numbers in recent seasons, Jonathan Broxton appears inconsistent. After a brilliant 2009, when he posted a 2.61 ERA and saved 36 games, Broxton had a 4.04 ERA in 2010.

Taking the past three seasons, Broxton had a 3.21 ERA in 207.1 innings. Cliff Lee’s 2010 statistics alone (3.18 ERA, 212.1 IP) nearly matched those figures. Lee’s workload for each one-third of the season, or two months, basically matches Broxton’s seasonal figure. The chart compares Lee’s stats every two months to Broxton’s numbers by season.

The timeframes are different – number one is April/May 2010 for Lee and the 2008 season for Broxton – to compare the pitchers over similar innings. Broxton actually had more consistent ERAs than Lee, who had his 2.00 ERA in June/July 2010 soar to 4.66 in August/September. This isn’t to claim that Broxton’s value approaches Lee’s – and this is just one comparison – but more extensive research revealed interesting results.

We ran this study for all pitchers that had an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50 in at least 150 innings: 1) from 2008 thru 2010 for relievers and 2) during 2010 for starters. The 19 relievers who met the criteria showed just slightly less consistency than the 17 starters. For complete results, visit The Sports Resource Blog.

The Impact of Speed on Teammates

The concept of players making their teammates better gets discussed more in basketball than baseball. But there are situations when it applies to baseball as well, and significantly impacts team success.

Take B.J. Upton, for example. Over the past two seasons, batting with Upton at first base has been very good for the other Tampa Bay Rays hitters. With his speed distracting pitchers and the hole opening up between the first and second basemen, batters hit .412 in 2009 and 2010 combined. Slugging percentage also increased dramatically with Upton on first base, jumping to .603 versus .419 in all other at-bats.

Speed definitely plays a role in batter success. In 2009-10, Major League batters hit .255 with the bases empty, .273 with a runner on first (and the other bases unoccupied), and .303 with one of the league’s top 10 base stealers on first base. If you represent an elite baserunner, chances are he has had this same impact on his team.

The Sports Resource researches concepts like this to build player value for free agency and arbitration, as well as long-term deals for your pre-arbitration players. In addition to using advanced metrics, we apply core statistics in innovative ways. This is less complicated to explain than most advanced metrics, and makes a powerful point to increase your leverage and bargaining power.

Reports en Español

For your Spanish-speaking clients or prospects, The Sports Resource has the ideal solution. We make all our statistical packages available in Spanish. When recruiting new clients from Latin America, they could be a difference maker.




For more revealing information and statistics, follow Steve Fall on Twitter at www.twitter.com/StatsMan.

Note: All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random, and are not from actual projects. All projects and conversations are confidential.

To reach us by email, contact: steve.fall@sportsresource.net.

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