We provide agents with statistical analysis and research services for arbitration, free agency and long-term deals. Call Steve Fall at 570-323-2178 to discuss your needs.

Replacement Value and Fielding

The Baseball Analytics panel at the recent MIT Sports Analytics Conference provided tremendous insight into how statistical analysis is impacting the game.

Shiraz Rehman, the Diamondbacks’ Director of Baseball Operations, spoke about their approach to valuing players. “The understanding of replacement value is becoming more apparent,” said Rehman to the crowd of analysts, sports insiders and students. “What do we have to spend to get x value over replacement level?”

Therefore, especially for role players, demonstrating value to team becomes vital.

The panel also discussed how teams realize they’ll get a player’s best performance from ages 25-to-29. This usually matches the years when teams control players’ contracts. Compensatory draft picks are huge, since keeping them may give teams a player with six years of control.

Better ways to evaluate fielding have also influenced the game. John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions pointed out that the difference between baseball’s best defensive team in 2008 (the Phillies) and the worst (the Royals) amounted to 130 runs: Roughly half the gap between the top run-scoring club (Texas) and the lowest (San Diego). David Pinto of Baseball Musings followed that by explaining how defense turned the fortunes of the Devil Rays pitching staff in one year. Will this emphasis on defense impact the salaries of strong fielders in free agency and arbitration?

The discussion also revealed an area of opportunity for agents and analysts. Shiraz said that there isn’t a large scale effort to evaluate leadership and team chemistry. So any statistical categories that demonstrate these contributions could give agents an edge.

You can read about more hot topics from the conference regarding other sports on The Sports Resource Blog.

Impacting Wins

From 2006 through 2008, the Marlins’ winning percentage increased 114 points in games started by Jeremy Hermida compared to all other contests. The table and chart below reveal this information for 8 other outfielders on track to be second-time arbitration eligible after the season.

This stat works best over longer time frames with players that miss some games. For example, Jeff Francoeur played all but 11 ballgames from 2006 through 2008. So Francoeur got left out because he didn’t miss enough action to make his “other games” figure statistically significant.

Player Tracking Reports

Statistics tell a story. But to thoroughly evaluate a player’s performance – especially in the short term – they must account for context. What influence have ballparks had on his numbers? What quality of opponents has he faced? The Sports Resource’s Player Tracking Reports answer these and other vital questions. You will not only see how your arbitration-eligible players are performing relative to their service class, but what key trends forecast for the rest of the season.

Note: All players mentioned in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random. None of this information comes from actual projects. All projects and conversations are confidential.

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