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Evaluating Hitters with Expected RBI

Many factors influence runs batted in totals that are beyond a hitter’s control. Lineup position, the strength of his team’s offense and the players he follows in the batting order all impact RBI figures. Expected RBI evens the playing field for all hitters.

Expected RBI breaks down every situation in which a player has a plate appearance, and then multiplies it by the RBI that an average batter brings home in those circumstances.

For example, with the bases loaded and nobody out, an average hitter drives home .83 runs per plate appearance. So the average performance for a player with 12 plate appearances in these spots is 10 RBI. Altogether, there are 24 different base/out situations. They all get combined to calculate expected RBI.

James Loney had driven in 79 runs through September 8, compared to 68 for Hunter Pence. Loney had 15 more plate appearances than Pence, but still appeared to be the slightly better RBI man. Considering Pence had socked 23 homers, 68 seemed like a low RBI total. But who had fared better in expected RBI?

Loney’s expected RBI figure was 75. So he had driven home four more runners than an average player given all the situations in which he batted. Pence had surpassed his expected RBI by nine. By this measure, Pence had been a better RBI man this season than Loney.

Since the Astros had a low team on-base percentage (.324), Pence batted numerous times in unfavorable RBI situations. The Dodgers had the NL’s best OBP (.347). This gave Loney more RBI opportunities, and he had done a solid job of cashing in. But all things equal, Pence had out-performed him when it came to bringing in runners.

The Sports Resource examines innovative metrics like expected RBI – as well as all core statistics – to add value for your free agents and arbitration-eligible players.

Pitching, Defense and Statistics

Defense has a huge impact on pitching statistics. If a pitcher plays behind a poor defense, this becomes a key point for both free agency and arbitration.

Defensive efficiency measures how many balls in play get converted to outs by the defense. This stat reveals far more about fielding performance than fielding percentage. Pitching for teams ranked in the lower 20 percent of defensive efficiency this season has been difficult (see table).

The gap in ERA was nearly twice as great in 2008. Pitchers on the worst defensive teams had a 4.80 ERA compared to 4.21 for all others.

Among the 13 ERA Title qualifiers that pitched for the poorest 2008 defensive clubs, all now have seen the defense improve behind them. Either their team improved defensively or they joined a better defensive club. Not surprisingly, 10 of these 13 pitchers lowered their ERA. Kevin Millwood, Zach Duke, Felix Hernandez and Ubaldo Jimenez are among those who have posted dramatically better numbers.

The Royals, Red Sox, Astros, Orioles, A’s and Marlins had the poorest defensive efficiency figures this season (through September 8). That makes solid pitching numbers by players on these teams even more impressive.

A potential free agent like Brad Penny was hurt by the poor Boston defense, posting a 5.61 ERA with the club. He’ll get a chance to pitch in front of the third-ranked Giants defense in September. Other free agent pitchers from bad defensive clubs won’t get that opportunity. Therefore, adjusting their performance for this factor could prove vital in free agency and arbitration.

The Sports Resource Blog and Twitter

The Sports Resource Blog features analysis and commentary of special interest to agents.

Steve Fall posts items on statistical trends on Twitter at www.twitter.com/StatsMan.

Note: All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random, and are not from actual projects. All projects and conversations are confidential.

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