We provide agents with powerful statistical analysis and research for arbitration, free agency, and contract negotiations. Call Steve Fall at 512-852-8193 for more information.

Building on Won-Lost Records

While pitching wins and winning percentage have shortcomings as statistics, they play a major role in arbitration. When a starter lacks strong numbers in this area, there are many ways to approach the situation.

The Sports Resource not only examines the effect of run support, defensive play, and bullpen performance on starting pitchers, but shows how they impact their team’s performance.

Armando Galarraga had just a 23-22 career won-lost record (through August 30). Based on that alone, Galarraga would fall short of many other first-time arbitration-eligible starters. His teams had fared far better in his game starts, going 39-32 for a .549 winning percentage.

The team’s winning percentage in a pitcher’s starts means more when compared to results from their other games. The Tigers and Rangers had just a .477 winning percentage during Galarraga’s career in all games besides his starts.

The table below matches Galarraga against five other first-time arbitration eligibles in this category. The Sports Resource’s special weighting method adjusts the team winning percentage based on how many starts a pitcher makes per season. Galarraga’s increases slightly to .481. His .068 differential tops all the starters in the group.

Primed for a Turnaround

Some of the advanced baseball metrics make it possible to identify players likely to improve the following season. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is especially effective for this purpose. Hitters with a low BABIP have, for the most part, experienced bad luck and should rebound.

Gerald Laird had one of the American League’s lowest BABIP figures (.234) this season, which fell well short of his career BABIP (.285) and the league average (.297). Laird’s BABIP should rise substantially next year toward those levels. That would cause his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging to all increase sharply.

Laird has tremendous defensive value. He throws out basestealers well (38.0 percent career caught stealing rate), and the numbers reveal that he has a positive effect on pitchers. In the past five seasons, pitchers have a 4.56 ERA when he catches, compared to 4.86 for his team’s other catchers. The chart shows the year-by-year breakdown for this potential free agent. Laird has shined in this area.

For both free agency and arbitration, The Sports Resource can adjust these numbers based on the quality of pitchers caught and the strength of the opposing teams they faced.

Award-Winning Reports

For agents with clients in the running for major awards, The Sports Resource has just what you need. Our award packages highlight your player’s top achievements and show what sets him apart from the competition. With wide open races for some awards this season, they could be a difference maker! Call Steve Fall at 512-852-8193 for a confidential discussion.

A Game Changer

Based on presentations at both the 2010 PITCHf/x Summit and the Society for American Baseball Research Convention in August, the coming years will see an explosion of fascinating statistical information.

PITCHf/x, which tracks the break and speed of every pitch thrown in the Major Leagues, has been expanded to both hitting and fielding. Expect to see some outstanding new defensive metrics in the near future. The Sports Resource Blog covered this topic briefly in a recent post, and we can share additional details with agents and their staffs.




For more revealing information and statistics, follow Steve Fall on Twitter at www.twitter.com/StatsMan.

Note: All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random, and are not from actual projects. All projects and conversations are confidential.

To reach us by email, contact: steve.fall@sportsresource.net.

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